Watching That Predictions Blog 2023

CTV Predictions for 2023

Last year gave us plenty of surprises, with global issues affecting life at every level, let alone the media industry. The is no doubt that these issues and their effects will continue well into 2023 and, potentially, beyond. 

So it is under this volatile, chaotic ceiling that we’ve collectively attempted another list of what you should expect to see in the coming year, 2023. No doubt some curveballs will be delivered and throw everything back up in the air, but for now, as it stands today, here is what we’ve got:.

Watching That Teamwork 2023 Predictions

1. The Real Cost of Auctions Exposed

Reducing carbon emissions will – justifiably – continue to be an increasingly important topic in advertising and across all industry. 

Going carbon-neutral is not a matter of if, but when, and 2023 should be the year that the media industry decides to go all in on measuring – and reducing – the emissions that result from its practices

With Mediacom already setting the standard, we’ll see more buyers demanding lower carbon campaign delivery. 

Real-Time and Header Bidding naturally produce a high number of ad calls – which translates into a high carbon footprint. But the questions remain: is that avoidable? Can it be optimised further? 

So we are likely to  see sellers and ad tech firms look to understand the connection between digital advertising and carbon emissions more. And from that knowledge look to reduce the amount of auctions they run, especially on more peripheral exchanges.


2. Ad spend dip

The UK is now predicted to be in recession and the rest of the G20 will struggle for growth for most-if-not-all- of 2023, and that means a reduction in ad spend and brands look to consolidate rather than expand their market share. 

It also means reduced risk taking, and concentration of budgets in more tried-and-tested places, too. We think that will include CTV.

That means fewer dollars spent on advertising overall, but more consolidation of those dollars onto CTV where premium audiences and premium inventory are more readily available . Will these factors negate each other when it comes to CPMs? We’re not making a call on that!


3. All Hail H-VOD

As the big SVOD platforms jump on AVOD bandwagon, we’ll need a new acronym – we’re putting our chips on HVOD – Hybrid Video On Demand. This describes channels and platforms that charge a subscription, and have advertising, a-la Netflix. More will follow suit.

More ad supported tiers means more opportunities to reach audiences, and more available inventory. Some users will remain on subscription only tiers, causing advertisers all kinds of headaches.

Ironically many streaming platforms will need to start operating like the brands they sell advertising to. Concepts like Full Funnel Optimisation, churn, and viewer acquisition costs and conversion will dominate the conversations into 2023.

Either way, 2023 will be a year of experimentation on price, and product offering. It’s set to be very confusing for consumers.


4. Less Time. Always On.

As more advertising runs on CTV, there will be increased demand for ad-ops talent, and their time will be stretched. 

More channels, more inventory, more campaigns, more devices, more viewers… less time.

There won’t be time to review data for data’s sake. Media companies don’t have time to read the novel, they need the Cliffs Notes… or better yet, the book report written for them. 

So automating monitoring workflows leveraging advanced machine align real time will be critical – especially during the hours of the evening and on weekends when Ops teams have gone home, and users turn on their televisions. 


5. The Heavy Streamers Burden

There is a subset of consumers who watch a dis-proportionate amount of TV content. Culture would give these people many different names… We’ll call them Heavy Streamers.  

Now, don’t get me wrong, we’re all very grateful to people who consume a lot of media, they help generate ad dollars. But Heavy Streamers skew our campaigns.

We all know frequency capping across channels, platforms and devices is difficult. Well this is even more so with Heavy Streamers. As they are likely to have more subscriptions and jump across devices and channels.

In 2023, these streamers will make their presence felt more, as their impact spreads across the new HVOD platforms.


So there we have it. We’ve put our cards on the table, let’s see if we’ve hit a Full House this time next year. Don’t miss an update, subscribe to our blog below.