How Did We Do? Our 2022 CTV Predictions Revisited

This time last year we made six predictions about what was going to happen in CTV this year (2022). Did we get it 🎯 spot on, in the right ⚾️ ball-park, or completely 🤦‍♂️ miss the mark?

Prediction #1.

Subscriptions will hit saturation point, leading more and more services to offer light ad- supported hybrid packages.

🎯 Well, that’s a good start!

This was the big story of 2022, with even Netflix launching an ad-supported tier. We’ll see more of this in 2023, as platforms tweak their offering to find the perfect mix of AVOD and SVOD – or as we call it, Hybrid Video On Demand [HVOD].

Prediction #2.
Faster adoption of the Walled Garden business model in CTV.

🎯 Also true.

We’re seeing content moved off the major aggregators, and back into channels run by their producing company. We’re also seeing plenty of platforms that control their ecosystem – from content, to media buying platform, to measurement and attribution.

Prediction #3.
Fracturing of the measurement industry.

⚾️ Partly true.

Measurement is still a bone of contention, with panel-based measurement chosen by Netflix, the inability to scale Attention metrics, and no consistency in the sector.

Prediction #4.
Attention and Engagement will replace Viewability as the gold standard of video inventory quality and effectiveness.

⚾️ Partly true.

Viewability remains a factor in open web video, but attention has certainly grabbed all the… attention, this year. However, progress was stalled for geo-political and economic reasons. We’ll see more uptake in 2023, it’s just not happening as fast as we all hoped.

Prediction #5.
InVerse advertising will become the darling of the future.

⚾️ Ballpark.

InVerse or metaverse advertising has certainly continued apace throughout the year. But Meta have made concessions that their investment in this sector may have been disproportionate, and questions are being asked as to the true reach of metaverse activations. Audio, meanwhile, seems to be settled in its place as an important space.

Prediction #6.
NFTs will replace Ads.txt and Ads.cert as the new way to authenticate inventory and prevent ad fraud.

🤦‍♂️ Not yet.

Ads.txt remains widely accepted, and we haven’t seen any movements towards NFTs as a replacement. We do think that tokenisation is a good way to deliver trust in media, but maybe we were getting ahead of ourselves with this one!

 

So, how did we do?

Overall, we were in the right ballpark more often than not.

It feels like factors out-with our industry slowed the pace of innovation that we expected. With more economic uncertainty lying ahead, we’d be brave to try and make predictions for 2023… But we’re going to.

👇 So subscribe below to be the first to hear our 2023 predictions.